Future Knowledge Work Use Case Scenario Healthcare Industry

Future Knowledge Work Use Case Scenario 

Healthcare Industry

Heba Khashogji

Georgetown University

Scenarios for Future Developments in Healthcare Industry 

Introduction:

In the last few months, some research considered Corona Virus Pandemic as the most critical challenge facing the globe since World War-II. The impacts of this pandemic were not only limited to the current or the near future of our lives, but it will also have an expected long-term impact on many aspects of the economic developments in the future.

In the same direction, OECD has raised a big question as a central theme of their attempt on contributing to a global effort for tackling coronavirus: “What are the impacts and consequences of the coronavirus pandemic on our lives and our societies? And what are some of the solutions we can find to boost our healthcare systems, secure our businesses, maintain our jobs and education, and stabilise financial markets and economies?”  

And yet, Knowledge Economy in Healthcare Industry will have one of the big shares of these impacts for two reasons:

First, because it will be impacted by the negative or positive changes may occur in the whole economy that aside of the greater impacts extended and affected the interrelated, interdependent, and stimulated industries.

In this regards, in October 2020, The Economists titled one of it’s exciting articles as: “The pandemic has caused the world’s economies to diverge” classifying that into “winners and losers”, and to describe it as a ”long-term impact”, and, it “will be even more far-reaching”. Accordingly, Healthcare industry is one of the heavily impacted sectors because of the pandemic.

In the same article, The Economists detailed that “the crash was synchronised. As a recovery takes place, however, huge gaps between the performance of countries are opening up—which could yet recast the world’s economic order.”.  For that reason,  new forecasts by the (OECD, 2020) expected that “the recovery will be uneven across countries and sectors and could lead to lasting changes in the world economy.”. 

Second, because the Healthcare is the industry which was in the core of many significant affects during 2020, and probably, for unpredictable longer time. This key aspect discussed by (Cheney, 2020) in his analysis to the survey results. In his analysis he found that “COVID-19 has turned The Healthcare Industry upside down”. 

Cheney added, “A recent survey indicates the coronavirus pandemic has significantly impacted healthcare professional employment, clinician burnout, and telemedicine.”. In the same way, “a team of futurists, analysts, and consultants from the Global Transformational Health Research Team have come together to render a comprehensive analysis to predict the future of healthcare with COVID-19 disruption in perspective.”.

Two Future Scenarios

In this paper, we will work on contemplating two scenarios for the foreseen developments in the Healthcare Industry in the coming few years:

1. Scenario I, Restructuring and reforming the Healthcare policies and systems (World Bank Group’s Perspective)

In this scenario we can see clearly how the Pandemic force the governments and the health institutions and agencies to re-consider their strategies and seriously evaluate their readiness to the current and expected spikes of Pandemic. 

One of the clear examples is the increasing demand on getting more funds to finance the emerging need to combat the uncontrollable Pandemic spread resulting severe casualties. In the last few months, long list of governments has applied for getting emergent loans by the World Bank. Thus, the WBG expressed it deep understanding to the level of the disaster many countries are facing when saying “The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has taken a drastic human toll, and the economic and social impacts of the pandemic are reverberating globally.” (World Bank Group, 2020).

To identify the main feature of this scenario it may be so helpful to explore two of the four key areas outlining the future response priorities of the WBG which were emphasis on:

• Saving lives threatened by the pandemic
• Working to build a more resilient recovery

Both, the two priorities cannot be done without adopting some “exceptional approach” for restructuring the health sector and to reform the regulations for more functioning system. Chart #1 may demonstrate this long-term objective as it is defining the “Rebuilding Better” as: “strengthening Policies, Institutions, and Investments” (World Bank Group, 2020). 

This chart may summarize the WBG philosophy what should be done and when. In the “Relief Stage” we can find the “maintain line of sight to long-term goals. In the second phase defined as the “Restructuring Phase” we can find “policy and institutional reforms.”. Then, “Resilient Recovery Stage” was in third phase with focus on investment for rebuilding better.

Chart #1

Source: World Bank Group, 2020

(The Economist, 2020) was discussed the same concept by calling for new public policies “includes how governments respond to the structural changes” and “destruction the pandemic is causing”.

From the lessons learned during the previous 13 months, any reform in the 

Health Sector systems should take into the account building more resilient policies to absorb the tragic surprises. Equally important, it is significant to minimize the bureaucratic obstacles in the Health sector to the minimum, and, to apply a non-political and independent Health Sector administration to avoid wasting the critical time during the disasters in political bargaining.

On the other hand, more-sophisticated emergency strategies using the holistic approach and more efficient early alarm systems became a MUST. Also, readiness of volunteers and (parallel) salvage armies to merge into the system whenever needed can be seen among the very important requirement for having a responding system.

The other important area of improving the Health System is to set new codes of ethical, technical, and financial International collaboration and cooperation. Without the effective international cooperation, it will be semi-impossible to any country to win the battle against the pandemic disaster.

2. Scenario II, Technology, and Future Impacts on Healthcare Industry:

In the (Economists, 2020) article titled “Health care and technology, the dawn of digital medicine” they expected that “the pandemic is ushering in the next trillion-dollar industry” referring to the heavy technology forecasted to be used in the coming years in the Healthcare Industry. Chart #2 may reflect their logical expectations in numbers.

Chart #2

The Economist added: “McKinsey estimates that global digital-health revenues—from telemedicine, online pharmacies, wearable devices and so on—will rise from $350bn last year to $600bn in 2024” (see chart #2). Furthermore; “the groundwork for what looks poised to be the next trillion-dollar business has been accelerated by the pandemic. Money is pouring in.”. 

Similarly, (UBS, 2020) explored the trends and technologies defining the future of the healthcare industry.” Accordingly, “The healthcare industry is leaping forward, as COVID-19 speeds up advances in health technologies, remote care (telemedicine), and a focus on a more sustainable healthcare system.”.

 In the same way, (Research and Markets, 2020) in one of it’s new releases demonstrated that the “impact of COVID-19 on the Global Healthcare Market presents key growth opportunities in life sciences, medical technologies, digital health, and medical imaging industries”. 

Conversely, you can find many conversative thoughts warning from serious challenges may confront this scenario. OECD was one of the high voices to warn, “still, the scars will be with us for years to come, as the crisis has put pressure on job markets, widened inequalities and exposed the digital divide.”.

Critically, The Economist raised an important issue to be considered “as more business activities moves online, Healthcare business (similar to many other businesses) “will become more dominated by firms with the most advanced intellectual property and the biggest repositories of data”. 

References:

1. Cheney, Christopher, (July 27, 2020), COVID-19 ‘has turned the healthcare industry upside down,’ survey finds. HTTPS://WWW.HEALTHLEADERSMEDIA.COM/CLINICAL-CARE/COVID-19-HAS-TURNED-HEALTHCARE-INDUSTRY-UPSIDE-DOWN-SURVEY-FINDS
2. OECD, (December, 2020), Turning hope into reality, OECD Economic Outlook, https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/
3. OECD, (December 1, 2020), Tackling coronavirus (COVID-19), Contributing to a global effort. https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/
4. Research and Markets, (2020), Impact of COVID-19 on the Global Healthcare Market. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/impact-of-covid-19-on-the-global-healthcare-market-2020—presents-key-growth-opportunities-in-life-sciences-medical-technologies-digital-health-and-medical-imaging-industries-301089029.html 
5. The Economist, (December 02, 2020), Health care and technology, The dawn of digital medicine, https://www.economist.com/business/2020/12/02/the-dawn-of-digital-medicine .
6. The Economist, (October 08, 2020), Winners and losers, https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/10/08/the-pandemic-has-caused-the-worlds-economies-to-diverge .

7. The World Bank Group, (November 17, 2020), WBG COVID-19 Crisis Response. https://www.worldbank.org/en/who-we-are/news/coronavirus-covid19?intcid=wbw_xpl_banner_en_ext_Covid19
8. UBS Chief Investment Office, (Sep 16, 2020), What is driving the future of healthcare? https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-investment-office/investment-opportunities/investing-in-the-future/2020/future-of-humans-healthcare.html?campID=SEM-CIO-US-EN-GOOGLE-G_US_AO_EN_CIO_BMM-Healthcare_BMM-%20+future%20+healthcare-BMM&ef_id=EAIaIQobChMI7t-Jy7q47QIVA-iGCh3C_gbmEAAYASAAEgKcGfD_BwE:G:s&s_kwcid=AL!410!3!466633541405!b!!g!!%2Bfuture%20%2Bhealthcare&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI7t-Jy7q47QIVA-iGCh3C_gbmEAAYASAAEgKcGfD_BwE